NFL Draft Grades & 2026 Projections

Sort: Hide provisional (2022-2025)

Year	Grade	Elite (60+ AV)	Stars (30+ AV)	Starters (15+ AV)	Total AV	Mean AV	Pro Bowls	All-Pros

Year: Search: Round:

60+ AV (HOF-caliber)

30-59 AV (Pro Bowl)

15-29 AV (starter)

5-14 AV (fringe)

<5 AV (bust)

★ = Hall of Fame

Draft class grades over time. Striped bars are provisional (<4 years of career data).

Sort by: Franchise aggregates computed on 1980-2021 baseline. Click any team for year-by-year detail.

#	Franchise	Raw Grade	VAE Grade	Mean Annual	Consist. (stdev)	Picks	Elite (60+)	Stars (30+)	Total AV	Pro Bowls	All Pros

Raw Grade: Same composite methodology as league-wide drafts, applied to all franchise picks

VAE Grade: Value Above Expected — adjusts for draft slot, measures drafting skill independent of pick position

Franchise: Year:

View: Team: Lens emphasis:

BPA = highest consensus-grade prospect available at the pick

NEED = highest-grade prospect matching a top-5 team need

MOST-LIKELY = blended (40% BPA + 40% Need + 20% historical positional bias)

How the simulation works: Picks are made in order. At each pick, all three lenses are computed for every available prospect. Only the Most-Likely choice is removed from the pool — BPA and Need columns reflect what was available at the moment of the pick. Historical bias = how often this franchise has drafted that position in this pick range across 1980-2025. Need match = priority weight (1.0 for need #1, declining to 0.5 for need #5).

How the Grades Work

Every draft class from 1980 to 2025 is graded 0-100. The grade is a composite of five metrics based on Weighted Career Approximate Value (Pro Football Reference's industry-standard measure, weighted toward a player's best seasons).

The Five Metrics (league-wide grades)

Mean AV per pick (30%)
Elite count (30%) — 60+ career AV (HOF-caliber)
Star count (20%) — 30+ career AV (Pro Bowl-caliber)
Starter count (10%) — 15+ career AV
Total class AV (10%)

Team Grades: Two Scores, Not One

Each franchise gets two grades:

Raw Grade applies the same composite as league-wide drafts, normalized per-pick across the 32 franchises. This measures raw output — how much AV a franchise's drafts have produced overall.

Value Above Expected (VAE) Grade adjusts for draft slot. An expected-AV curve is fit from 1980-2021 (what an average player at pick N produces). Each actual pick is scored against that expectation. VAE measures drafting skill independent of where the team was picking. Teams that consistently drafted late (good teams) get appropriately rewarded; teams that picked early year after year (bad teams) get normalized to what they should have produced.

Big gaps between Raw and VAE tell a story. The Ravens (#6 raw, #2 VAE) and Patriots are elite late-round drafters. The Cardinals (#10 raw, #25 VAE) have had lots of top-10 picks and underperformed relative to slot.

Fair-Era Comparisons

Only rounds 1-7 count. Modern drafts are 7 rounds; older drafts had up to 12. This prevents older drafts from being penalized for their deep bench of late-round dart throws.

Franchise Continuity

Teams are rolled up to their modern franchise: Raiders span OAK + LA-era + Vegas. Rams span LA + STL + LA. Cardinals span STL + Phoenix + Arizona. Split franchises per NFL convention: Ravens count only from 1996 forward (new franchise); Browns count 1980-1995 + 1999+ (Cleveland's records stayed); Titans count Houston Oilers 1980-1996 + Tennessee 1997+; Texans count only from 2002 (expansion).

Provisional Grades (2022-2025)

Orange "PROV" badge. These classes have 1-4 seasons of data and their AV numbers will shift meaningfully as careers develop. Treat as directional.

Known Limits

Pre-1980 drafts aren't included (no comparable public data source). Career AV is imperfect for defensive backs and specialists. Trades aren't adjusted for — if team A trades up and gets a star, team A gets the credit (which is correct: they made the selection).